Points: 103 · FPL avg: 56 · vs avg: +47 · Cumulative: +190 · Predicted: 66.2 xPts · Chip: — · Hits: 0 · Bank: £3.4m · FT: 1
The model called 66.2 xPts but the week delivered 103, a 36-point overperformance driven by two outlier hauls the model couldn’t have foreseen: Mateta and Mukiele both scored 17 points against combined xPts of just 12.4, with the Tarkowski-to-Mukiele transfer proving an immediate hit. Haaland did his job as captain with 13 points on a 7.7 projection, providing a reliable floor, while the bench contributed nothing and underperformers like Pope and Anthony were effectively dead weight. The result — 47 above the FPL average — was largely a function of two defenders going off script rather than model accuracy, but the optimizer’s willingness to hold Mateta and pull the trigger on Mukiele was vindicated.