GW26 Replay

Points: 85  ·  FPL avg: 58  ·  vs avg: +27  ·  Cumulative: +595  ·  Predicted: 109.2 xPts  ·  Chip: WC  ·  Hits: 0  ·  Bank: £7.2m  ·  FT: 1

The Wildcard delivered a solid +27 over the average despite the model’s 109.2 xPts projection falling well short at 85 actual, with the gap driven largely by a cluster of defensive and midfield underperformers — Gabriel, J.Timber, Wirtz, B.Fernandes, and Mané combined for just 19 points against a projected 49.6. Rice justified his captaincy almost exactly as predicted (14 vs 14.8 xPts), and José Sá was the standout overperformer at 13 points against a 7.5 projection, largely offsetting the João Pedro upgrade that also beat its model (10 vs 5.5). The chip paid off in context — 85 points on a WC gameweek clears a high bar — but the wholesale defensive restructure left significant xPts on the table through variance rather than model error.