Points: 58 · FPL avg: 39 · vs avg: +19 · Cumulative: +239 · Predicted: 64.6 xPts · Chip: — · Hits: 1 · Bank: £7.3m · FT: 1
The model overestimated by 6.6 points, but the bigger story is how badly its confidence was misplaced: the three players it rated highest behind the captain — Mateta, B.Fernandes, and Truffert — returned a combined 3 points against a combined xPts of 17.0, while Pickford, Andersen, and Anderson collectively hauled 29 points on a projected 13.7. The Rice captaincy was defensible and roughly on the money at 6 points, but the -4 hit looks poor in retrospect given Truffert blanked entirely. Despite the chaos in the point distribution, a +19 beat on the average kept the cumulative margin healthy at +239, largely carried by defenders the model rated as floor picks.
| Player | Pos | Cost | xPts | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | Rice | MID | £6.9m | 6.3 | 6 |
| IN | Truffert | DEF | £4.5m | 5.5 | 0 |
| OUT | Gabriel | DEF | £6.5m | — | — |
| OUT | Anthony | MID | £5.6m | — | — |
1 hit(s) taken (-4 pts)
| Player | Pos | xPts | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saka | MID | 5.4 | 4 |
| Rice © (×2) | MID | 6.3 | 6 |
| Senesi | DEF | 5.4 | 3 |
| Truffert | DEF | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tavernier | MID | 5.3 | 7 |
| Mateta (vc) | FWD | 5.8 | 1 |
| Pickford | GKP | 4.1 | 10 |
| Andersen | DEF | 4.5 | 10 |
| B.Fernandes | MID | 5.7 | 2 |
| Anderson | MID | 5.1 | 9 |
| Bowen | FWD | 5.4 | 4 |
| Total | 58.4 | 56 |
| Player | Pos | xPts | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pope | GKP | 2.7 | 3 |
| Mukiele | DEF | 3.8 | 4 |
| Calafiori | DEF | 3.5 | 2 |
| Richarlison | FWD | 3.2 | 6 |
| GW | Chip | xPts | Actual | Avg | vs Avg | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | 57.3 | 82 | 54 | +28 | +28 |
| 2 | FH | 80.5 | 57 | 51 | +6 | +34 |
| 3 | WC | 72.8 | 60 | 48 | +12 | +46 |
| 4 | BB | 66.5 | 97 | 63 | +34 | +80 |
| 5 | — | 60.0 | 70 | 42 | +28 | +108 |
| 6 | — | 68.1 | 49 | 46 | +3 | +111 |
| 7 | TC | 70.2 | 92 | 60 | +32 | +143 |
| 8 | — | 66.2 | 103 | 56 | +47 | +190 |
| 9 | — | 65.2 | 51 | 46 | +5 | +195 |
| 10 | — | 63.8 | 75 | 65 | +10 | +205 |
| 11 | — | 59.9 | 53 | 38 | +15 | +220 |
| 12 | — | 64.6 | 58 | 39 | +19 | +239 |
| Total | 795.0 | 847 | 608 | +239 |