GW22 Replay

Points: 56  ·  FPL avg: 40  ·  vs avg: +16  ·  Cumulative: +561  ·  Predicted: 57.8 xPts  ·  Chip: —  ·  Hits: 0  ·  Bank: £10.0m  ·  FT: 1

The model called aggregate output almost exactly right — 56 actual against 57.8 predicted — but the points came from the wrong players, with the defensive unit massively outperforming (Pickford 10, Thiaw 9, Gabriel 8, Mukiele 6 against a combined xPts of 15.5) while the midfield core collectively flopped (Rice, Schade, Bruno G., and Neto combining for just 10 points against an expected 22.6). The captaincy on Neto backfired badly — a 3-point return from the doubled pick cost roughly 9 points versus what a switch to Pickford or either of the overperforming defenders would have yielded — and the Saka-to-Neto transfer compounded that loss by bringing in a midfielder who blanked on the week. Still, a +16 margin over the FPL average with no chip deployed reflects how well the defensive selections were positioned, even if the model’s confidence in the midfield rotation proved misplaced.