Points: 33 · FPL avg: 38 · vs avg: -5 · Cumulative: +631 · Predicted: 63.0 xPts · Chip: — · Hits: 1 · Bank: £6.8m · FT: 1
The model projected 63.0 xPts but the squad returned just 33, a 30-point shortfall driven by a string of blanks from players the model rated highly — Becker (0), Ballard (0), and Alderete (1) all badly underdelivered against xPts in the 4.7–5.6 range. The captain pick compounded the damage: Enzo returned just 2 points on a 5.9 xPts projection, and the hit taken to bring him in (replacing Semenyo) cost a net 6 points given he matched his cheaper predecessor’s output. The week’s standout, Bruno Fernandes at 13 points against an xPts of 4.1, was in the XI but uncaptained — a brutal illustration of how the model’s variance blind spot on high-ceiling midfielders can flip a red week into a disaster.
| Player | Pos | Cost | xPts | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | Enzo | MID | £6.6m | 5.9 | 2 |
| IN | Calvert-Lewin | FWD | £5.6m | 5.8 | 2 |
| OUT | Semenyo | MID | £8.3m | — | — |
| OUT | Mané | FWD | £4.5m | — | — |
1 hit(s) taken (-4 pts)
| Player | Pos | xPts | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago | FWD | 5.7 | 4 |
| Enzo © (×2) | MID | 5.9 | 2 |
| A.Becker | GKP | 4.7 | 0 |
| Virgil | DEF | 5.0 | 3 |
| Szoboszlai | MID | 4.6 | 3 |
| B.Fernandes | MID | 4.1 | 13 |
| Anderson | MID | 5.5 | 5 |
| Ballard | DEF | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bowen | FWD | 4.7 | 2 |
| Alderete | DEF | 5.6 | 1 |
| Calvert-Lewin (vc) | FWD | 5.8 | 2 |
| Total | 57.1 | 35 |
| Player | Pos | xPts | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| José Sá | GKP | 0.0 | 0 |
| Gabriel | DEF | 0.0 | 0 |
| J.Timber | DEF | 0.0 | 0 |
| Rice | MID | 0.0 | 0 |
| GW | Chip | xPts | Actual | Avg | vs Avg | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | 57.3 | 82 | 54 | +28 | +28 |
| 2 | FH | 80.5 | 57 | 51 | +6 | +34 |
| 3 | WC | 72.8 | 60 | 48 | +12 | +46 |
| 4 | BB | 66.5 | 97 | 63 | +34 | +80 |
| 5 | — | 60.0 | 70 | 42 | +28 | +108 |
| 6 | — | 68.1 | 49 | 46 | +3 | +111 |
| 7 | TC | 70.2 | 92 | 60 | +32 | +143 |
| 8 | — | 66.2 | 103 | 56 | +47 | +190 |
| 9 | — | 65.2 | 51 | 46 | +5 | +195 |
| 10 | — | 63.8 | 75 | 65 | +10 | +205 |
| 11 | — | 59.9 | 53 | 38 | +15 | +220 |
| 12 | — | 64.6 | 58 | 39 | +19 | +239 |
| 13 | — | 64.2 | 67 | 35 | +32 | +271 |
| 14 | — | 63.8 | 45 | 58 | -13 | +258 |
| 15 | — | 68.9 | 94 | 49 | +45 | +303 |
| 16 | — | 71.0 | 80 | 60 | +20 | +323 |
| 17 | — | 69.4 | 82 | 66 | +16 | +339 |
| 18 | — | 64.4 | 84 | 44 | +40 | +379 |
| 19 | — | 64.6 | 87 | 40 | +47 | +426 |
| 20 | — | 77.6 | 122 | 42 | +80 | +506 |
| 21 | — | 80.1 | 87 | 48 | +39 | +545 |
| 22 | — | 57.8 | 56 | 40 | +16 | +561 |
| 23 | — | 64.7 | 58 | 44 | +14 | +575 |
| 24 | — | 63.7 | 59 | 55 | +4 | +579 |
| 25 | — | 63.4 | 47 | 58 | -11 | +568 |
| 26 | WC | 109.2 | 85 | 58 | +27 | +595 |
| 27 | — | 73.6 | 50 | 45 | +5 | +600 |
| 28 | — | 66.2 | 64 | 53 | +11 | +611 |
| 29 | — | 64.5 | 65 | 54 | +11 | +622 |
| 30 | — | 55.5 | 57 | 43 | +14 | +636 |
| 31 | — | 63.0 | 33 | 38 | -5 | +631 |
| Total | 2100.6 | 2169 | 1538 | +631 |