GW28 Replay

Points: 64  ·  FPL avg: 53  ·  vs avg: +11  ·  Cumulative: +611  ·  Predicted: 66.2 xPts  ·  Chip: —  ·  Hits: 0  ·  Bank: £5.6m  ·  FT: 1

The model called GW28 well, predicting 66.2 against an actual 64, with the gap largely explained by Anderson and Rogers combining for just 3 points against a projected 11.4. Bruno Fernandes was the week’s standout anomaly, tripling his xPts estimate with 13 points, while captain Thiago returned a modest 6 against a 7.3 projection — a soft miss that cost roughly 6 points versus an optimal armband. The transfer to Bowen paid off cleanly at 7 points, but 16 points were stranded on the bench between José Sá and Timber, both of whom outscored every outfield player below the armband.